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Sonic beats Wall Street, but sales are sagging

Sonic (NASDAQ: SONC), a fast-food chain whose colleagues include Burger King (NYSE: BKC), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Wendy's/Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN), and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), reported earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday after the bell. The shares have done well today on the news. As I write this, Sonic's stock is up well over 12% in afternoon trading. Volume is great. Do you want to get in on the action?

Sonic said it earned an adjusted 24 cents per share. This article reported expectations as being $0.20 per share, so management beat the bottom line by a nice amount. We'll throw that result on the positive side of the line.

Continue reading Sonic beats Wall Street, but sales are sagging

Burger King beats expectations, but will swine flu affect the fiscal year?

Burger King (NYSE: BKC), a fast-food joint that competes with McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), and Wendy's/Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN), issued its Q3 report on Wednesday. The top line didn't do much, rising only 1% in the face of difficulties with currency translations. Earnings came in at 34 cents per share. That was one penny better than Wall Street's expectations, according to Reuters.

It's always good to beat the earnings call. But Burger King didn't get much mileage out of that victory. The stock actually sold off 3% on the news, closing yesterday at a fresh 52-week low of $16.55. The big catalyst was the conservative fiscal-year guidance.

Continue reading Burger King beats expectations, but will swine flu affect the fiscal year?

Is Wendy's/Arby's Group's stock as healthy as its menu?

Wendy's/Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN), a fast-food company that competes with McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD), Burger King (NYSE: BKC), and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), reported earnings for the fourth quarter on Monday. Call me unimpressed.

The chain earned $0.05 per share on an adjusted basis. According to this article, the results matched expectations. I don't begrudge Wendy's/Arby's for doing that in such a tough marketplace. But I do begrudge the weakness in the Arby's brand. Systemwide same-store sales at Wendy's were up 3.7% in Q4, while systemwide comps at Arby's were down a terrible 8.5%. Arby's is having problems attracting people with its current menu portfolio. The value menu at Wendy's, on the other hand, seems to be a strategy that is working. Customers are coming in, ready to get a deal on those delicious, although not-so-healthy, square-shaped burgers. So, if the company wants to improve its situation, it's going to have to get serious about fixing Arby's.

Continue reading Is Wendy's/Arby's Group's stock as healthy as its menu?

Burger King misses in Q2 -- is stock a buy?

Burger King (NYSE: BKC), a famous fast-food joint that competes with McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), and Wendy's/Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN), reported earnings for the fiscal second quarter on Thursday. Net sales decreased 3%, and net income dipped 8% to $0.33 per diluted share. The call was for $0.37 per share.

It's good to be the King, but it's not good to miss your earnings forecast. Yes, we shouldn't always pay attention to the analysts and their game, and it's certainly difficult these days to make forecasts anyway, but it's always nice to see a company at least hit the ballpark in terms of consensus.

The press release cited concerns with currency translations, so that's something for shareholders to keep in mind. But the release also cited something that I think is one of the best elements of the Burger King story: its marketing campaigns. Management was happy to congratulate itself on being highlighted by trade journal Ad Week. I know, it's just corporate bragging in an earnings document, who needs that, right? While that may be true, I do honestly believe that Burger King's TV spots have definitely built a loyal following among the valuable youthful demos, and that the campaigns, which have included that creepy royal mascot, are indeed responsible for growth. And those Whopper Virgins commercials were pretty funny, too.

Continue reading Burger King misses in Q2 -- is stock a buy?

Yum! Brands had a decent Q4 -- buy the stock now?

Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), whose competitive colleagues include McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD), Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC), and Wendy's Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN), reported earnings for Q4 and the full fiscal year on Tuesday after the bell.

Net sales increased 4% for the quarter to $3.4 billion, and earnings per share on an adjusted basis went up 5% to $0.46. According to the earnings preview, sales essentially met Wall Street's view, but net income was beat by a penny. For the year, Yum! saw a net sales increase of 8% to $11.3 billion, and its adjusted bottom line increased by 14% to $1.91 per share. Once again, sales were in-line, and earnings beat by the proverbial penny.

Continue reading Yum! Brands had a decent Q4 -- buy the stock now?

Wendy's breakfast initiative tanking again

Wendys Arbys Group's (NYSE:WEN) Wendy's Restaurant's second foray into the breakfast business appears to have failed, sending the company back to the drawing board, and leaving McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) as the clearly dominant player in the drive-through morning business. According to Advertising Age, Wendy's CEO Roland Smith told attendees at an industry conference that the company had decided that the breakfast offering have fallen short of its expectations, both in quality and profitability.

Wendy's has been carrying out a test of breakfast offerings for two years already. In this instance, I suspect that 'test' was a way of couching the rollout so that the company did not have to face the embarrassment of franchisees refusing to open for the breakfast trade. Since the breakfast 'test' was not carried out in all units, it could not be supported by a national ad campaign, a weakness that surely impacted traffic.

The company plans to overhaul the menu, a step badly needed, imho. McDonald's has set the bar very high, offering high-quality fare such as hotcakes, biscuits and English muffins. Wendy's alternatives, which I had the occasion to sample a couple of times, seemed second-rate by comparison, made worse when low traffic volume resulted in less than fresh ingredients.

Given the saturation of the drive-through burger industry, I expect that Wendy's will indeed return again to the breakfast wars in an attempt to increase returns per unit. Finding an identity and the money to elbow its way into the market, however, will be difficult tasks.

Other Wendy's stories

Burger King may serve unhealthy food, but it had a healthy Q1

Burger King Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BKC), which competes with Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), Wendy's/Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN), and, of course, McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD), reported earnings today for the first fiscal quarter. The statistics show that, well, it kind of is good to be the king. I won't say these are the biggest growth numbers I've ever seen, but I thought they showed that the fast-food entity is doing well serving its core customers.

Revenues jumped 12%. On a global basis, comps jumped 3.6%, which management points out is the 19th time in a row that global comps were in positive-growth territory. I know, that's the kind of managerial cheerleading that an investor must be careful about, but I think it's a cool fact in this case. Domestically, comps advanced 3%, and, well, it's the 18th time in a row for that metric, if you care. Adjusted net income came in at $0.38 per share, a 9% increase. This is where the creepy Burger King mascot sheds a tear, because that was one penny below the expectations of the analyst wizards who populate the kingdom of Wall Street (according to Melly Alazraki's Before the Bell article from earlier today).

Although Burger King didn't please the analyst community, I thought this was a good quarter. The release said that the company purchased some stock and paid a dividend, all of which was covered by cash generated from operations. Management seems to be amply aware of the stresses that the economy is going to put on its patrons and is studying pricing strategies. That's the problem for every purveyor of foodstuffs. People aren't so keen about paying up for stuff these days, so how do you get them to do it? Costs and currency fluctuations are affecting many companies, and they won't have an easy go of it as the recession continues its march of pain (even with the recent upward moves in the stock market, I'm not that bullish just yet). So, even though I like Burger King's Q1, and even though I think it's a great marketer of its menu items (the youth really dig that creepy Burger King character), I'll concede that the stock could be volatile in the coming months. Long-term, though, it should be a good investment.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Earnings preview: McDonald's to serve up a happy meal of data?

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), which competes with Burger King (NYSE: BKC), Wendy's/Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN), and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), will be reporting earnings for the third quarter tomorrow. I have a feeling many shareholders will be resting easy this week. I don't think McDonald's will have a big earnings miss.

According to Earnings.com, Mickey D's should earn 97 cents per share. If management can meet those expectations, that's earnings growth of about 17%. That's tasty in this market. Here's the kicker: McDonald's beat earnings estimates the last two quarters by wide margins. Will the company do the same thing this week? I think there's a decent chance it will. Even though there's a bear market going on, gas prices have been dropping, and you figure that has to be good for the drive-thru. Plus, there's that affordable-menu option that has driven a lot of brand equity over the last several years for the fast-food giant. I'm sure many patrons appreciate that in a tough period.

Besides earnings, investors will focus on same-store sales. That metric is one of the best indicators of a company that is made up of many locations. It's really no different than retailing. I'll be interested to see how the domestic market is faring compared to the international markets. Another thing I'll be interested in seeing is how inflation is affecting Ronald and his empire. We all know that Ronnie is a clown who likes to bestow happiness among all his customers, but reality likes to ruin parades every now and then. In this case, McDonald's has to keep a constant eye on the issue of pricing.

Continue reading Earnings preview: McDonald's to serve up a happy meal of data?

Yum! Brands beats analysts, delivers solid cash flow

Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) reported earnings for the third quarter after the bell on Tuesday. Revenue went up 11% to $2.8 billion. Earnings per share rose 16% to $0.58. Global comps increased 3%.

You know, those numbers are not bad at all. As we await earnings reports, I'm sure that you, like me, are nervous. I mean, we're in the middle of a global economic slowdown fueled by a financial-system collapse, so the data this quarter is going to be particularly telling. The fact that Yum! has double-digit growth to its credit is pretty cool to see.

No, that doesn't mean I'm a bull on the markets all of a sudden, but it does show that people are still stopping by Pizza Huts and KFCs. Guess people won't give those guilty pleasures up during the monetary apocalypse, huh? And let's look at Yum!'s cash flow. While net cash from operating activities year-to-date was pretty much flat at $1.1 billion, it was more than enough to cover the capital spending and dividend obligation. As you can imagine, management highlighted the nice cash-flow generation of Yum!'s business. During a market crisis, it's the thing to do.

According to this source, Yum! beat by four pennies. Shareholders will be pleased by that, and perhaps the shareholders of Burger King (NYSE: BKC), Wendy's/Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN), and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) can take Yum!'s performance as a good omen for their companies. I can't say that Yum! Brands is going to rocket from here based on the earnings news. But I can say that long-term investors with a lot of patience should have a winner on their hands based on the brand equity of the company and its cash-flow-generating abilities.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Should Yum! Brands reveal calorie data?

Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) wants to educate its patrons. No, it's not going to be offering history lessons to go along with its personal pizzas, fried chicken and burritos. It just wants to make sure you know exactly how many calories are in the stuff you eat at its restaurants. The information will be posted at company-owned locations over the next few years. Management is hoping that franchise locations will also participate in the initiative (I'm sure most eventually will).

Personally, I think this is a great idea. How could anybody be opposed? After all, if I'm in a Pizza Hut, I want to know how much damage I'm doing to myself. Yes, I am one of those people who actually checks out the nutrition pages on the sites of fast-food joints such as McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Burger King (NYSE: BKC) and Wendy's Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN).

But yes, there is a downside for shareholders when this type of information is made available. Indeed, the more I've learned about the health effects of a bad diet, the more conservative I've been about going to a KFC or a McDonald's. No doubt Yum! will see some challenges from people scaling back on buying the junk food it sells. Will there be a significant effect? Will Yum! and its various chains disappear as a result of this decision? No. Management will simply adjust, if it becomes necessary, and will try to offer healthier selections.

Continue reading Should Yum! Brands reveal calorie data?

Earnings preview: Will McDonald's serve up healthy earnings?

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), whose competitors include Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), Burger King (NYSE: BKC), and Wendy's (NYSE: WEN), isn't known for being a part of a healthy diet, no matter how much branding it's done in that area. However, it is known for delivering good earnings. That's why investors probably aren't too worried when it comes to Wednesday, the day that the fast-food behemoth is set to hand off a sack of quarterly numbers at the earnings-report drive-thru.

According to AOL Finance, McDonald's beat the street by a wide margin in the first quarter. The call was for about 70 cents per share which Mickey Dee's beat by a whopping 11 cents. The previous quarters weren't as impressive, but they were solid enough. McDonald's seems to have the game of at least matching expectations down pat, so I am confident that come Wednesday, the company's bottom line will be close to the 86 cents per share that Wall Street is looking for in the second quarter, according to Earnings.com.

If McDonald's makes the number, then it will represent growth of over 20%. Double-digit appreciation is a valuable commodity in this time period. I can't say, though, that McDonald's won't have its challenges cut out for it. After all, inflation is affecting everyone, and fuel prices theoretically could hamper the popularity of the company's valuable drive-thru asset (I used one last evening myself). But McDonald's has that famous dollar menu going for it, so even in tough times, fans of fatty foodstuffs can still afford the oily, heart-clogging grub.


Continue reading Earnings preview: Will McDonald's serve up healthy earnings?

Yum! Brands beats earnings estimates, but will Wall Street care?

Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), which competes with Burger King (NYSE: BKC), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) and Wendy's (NYSE: WEN), issued its Q2 report on Wednesday. Total revenues increased 12%, and earnings per share jumped 16% to $0.45. According to Briefing.com, Yum! beat expectations by three pennies, but it didn't seem to satisfy the big guns of Wall Street. The stock was down 5% in the after-hours session yesterday.

Some reports indicate that margins are to blame here. It's true, the margins aren't as good as one would like, but the company has nevertheless succeeded in cutting some costs. I see Yum!'s quarter as a very decent one in the context of the current bear market. In fact, the company posted worldwide same-store sales growth of 4%. U.S. comps exhibited a growth rate of 2%. There is opportunity in the U.S. for Yum! in terms of marketing for its Pizza Hut, KFC and Taco Bell brands. Management needs to see if it can increase comps in this territory. International restaurants, including locations in China, continue to do well.

I like Yum! and its long-term prospects, especially for restaurants located abroad. I also like that the dividend saw a great double-digit increase during the quarter, rising by a whopping 27%. Management is therefore signaling shareholders a high level of confidence behind the brands. I'm reticent about putting new money to work in any stock right now, but I think Yum! Brands is worth a place on the watch list and a round of due diligence on a pullback.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

McDonald's continues its coffee crusade

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) has always been known for its famous French fries. Interestingly enough, though, it seems to me that the fast-food chain is becoming known these days for its coffee. I never thought McDonald's would invest as much as it has in coffee, but it looks like it's doing the right thing. According to this Bizjournals piece, McDonald's is putting its weight behind a coffee-bar initiative called McCafe. The program is being tested in various locations now and will be available nationally sometime next year.

I love the timing on this. After all, Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) isn't doing so well. Not only is its stock hovering around 52-week-low territory, but the java king recently announced some store closings. That's almost unimaginable. Remember the days when every street corner needed a Starbucks? Yeah, those days are long gone. And I think McDonald's is smart in attempting to expand the brand equity of its coffee-brand portfolio. People need more of a reason to go to the palace of the hamburger-serving clown than just Big Macs these days, since the Big Mac and its various fat-saturated colleagues aren't as popular in these health-conscious times. I'm not saying drinking coffee is an exercise in life preservation, I'm just saying that it's good for McDonald's to focus on less controversial fare.

This significant foray into coffee is arguably a key reason for the company's stellar stock performance over the last few years and its competitive edge against rivals Burger King (NYSE: BKC) and Wendy's (NYSE: WEN). According to the AOL Finance snapshot, McDonald's is very much in the green for every timeframe save for year-to-date, which sees the stock down less than 1%. That's strength. McDonald's is a little below its 52-week high, and it might make for an interesting investment idea. At the very least, you can look forward to its McCafe program.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Early analyst calls (T) (VZ) (GE)

UBS downgraded Verizon (NYSE:VZ) from "buy" to "neutral" and took the same action with AT&T (NSYE:T) according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that JMP upgraded Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) to "market perform" from "underperform".

General Electric (NYSE: GE) was cut to Neutral from Outperform at JPMorgan, according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial website also reports that Wendy's (NYSE: WEN) waised to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Honestly, who would pay this much for a burger?

I always love news items like this. According to Reuters, there exists a $175 hamburger. You can find it in New York at a place called The Wall Street Burger Shoppe. Presumably, big traders would be the only ones able to afford it.

Well, for those who would even think to complain about the prices at McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Burger King (NYSE: BKC) and Wendy's (NYSE: WEN), this $175 burger should put things in perspective. It doesn't sell a lot; the news piece states that the place moves about two dozen in any given thirty-day period. The Wall Street Burger Shoppe mostly sells $4 burgers.

But, really, this $175 burger is nothing more than genius marketing. The owners are obviously not under any illusion whatsoever that they can make a great return on capital by investing in such a pricey offering. All it's meant to do is to bring publicity to the establishment. It's obviously worked. As a way of branding, this goofy pricing scheme immediately differentiates the restaurant's brand from others. In fact, it was the stated intent of the owners to have the most expensive burger in the area. It's also a great differentiator between personalities. I mean, I think you can tell a lot about a person who is actually willing to buy this thing (and, you can certainly infer a lot about the person's net worth).

Continue reading Honestly, who would pay this much for a burger?

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Last updated: July 02, 2009: 09:34 PM

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